I Actually Feel Bad For This Guy...But Not Too Bad

I've been playing quite a bit of hi-lo Stud lately, especially in the last week since Pokerstars is doing a "double-FPP" promotion. I was multi-tabling at the time of this hand, and didn't get to see what my opponent had until I looked at the Hand History about 10 minutes later. He played the hand about as well as he possibly could and had to figure I was betting a low hand.

PokerStars - 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit ($1/$2) with 10 cent ante - 2007/05/14
Seat 1: GeoffreyM ($28.50 in chips)
Seat 2: djelove1 ($42.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Mr. B41 ($41.55 in chips)
Seat 5: LordPye ($8.45 in chips)
Seat 6: atlas_afs ($41.25 in chips)
Seat 7: plato65 ($113.20 in chips)
Seat 8: pouchouchou ($49 in chips)
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to GeoffreyM [6c]
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac] (cha chinggggg)
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s]
Dealt to LordPye [6d]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s]
Dealt to plato65 [Jd]
Dealt to pouchouchou [6s]

GeoffreyM: brings in for $0.50
djelove1: raises $0.50 to $1 (I'm in early position and the table has been loose)
Mr. B41: calls $1
LordPye: folds
atlas_afs: calls $1
plato65: calls $1
pouchouchou: folds
GeoffreyM: calls $0.50
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to GeoffreyM [6c] [Th]
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac] [8h]
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s] [Ks]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s] [Jc]
Dealt to plato65 [Jd] [2h]

djelove1: bets $1
Mr. B41: calls $1
atlas_afs: raises $1 to $2
plato65: folds
GeoffreyM: folds
djelove1: raises $1 to $3
Mr. B41: calls $2
atlas_afs: calls $1
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac 8h] [3s]
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s Ks] [Qd]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s Jc] [7h]

djelove1: bets $2
Mr. B41: calls $2
atlas_afs: raises $2 to $4
djelove1: raises $2 to $6
Mr. B41: calls $4
atlas_afs: calls $2
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s] [As] (QUADS ! ! ! )
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s Ks Qd] [Qh]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s Jc 7h] [3d]
djelove1: bets $2
Mr. B41: calls $2
atlas_afs: calls $2 (obv the ace forced him to slow down)
*** RIVER ***
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s As] [5d]
djelove1: bets $2
Mr. B41: folds
atlas_afs: calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
djelove1: shows [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s As 5d] (HI: four of a kind, Aces)
atlas_afs: mucks hand
djelove1 collected $41.70 from pot
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $42.70 Rake $1
Seat 1: GeoffreyM folded on the 4th Street
Seat 2: djelove1 showed [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s As 5d] and won ($41.70) with HI: four of a kind, Aces
Seat 3: Mr. B41 folded on the River
Seat 5: LordPye folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 6: atlas_afs mucked [9d 9c 9s Jc 7h 3d 2d] (dude was rolled-up too ! ! ! )
Seat 7: plato65 folded on the 4th Street
Seat 8: pouchouchou folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)

"What Can I Beat?" - Two Great Examples

Last night I played some 25c/50c NLHE on Pokerstars and experienced two hands where a "deeper think" about "What Can I Beat?"would have led to difficult, but correct, laydowns. In the first hand, the table I was at had just lost a couple of players, so I raised to $1.50 in MP with Qs9s, and it folded around to the BB, who called after a few seconds of thought. The flop came Q-8-2 rainbow, and after it was checked to me I bet $2. My opponent check-raised me to $4, whereupon I reraised him to $6 and was called. The turn was another Queen, giving me trips, and my opponent bet $25 (which would put me all-in if I called) into the $15 pot. I thought for a few seconds, and called, only to find out that my opponent had Q-10 offsuit, and he scooped the pot. In retrospect, this was a poorly-played hand:

- My hand value was not strong enough to enter the pot with.

- His hand value was too weak to call a raise with in a heads-up pot out of position.

- The flop was played OK by both players - I bet a good hand, he raised to see where he stood, and I reraised to redefine the strength of my hand. However, if I had reraised more strongly, say to $10, I think my opponent would have probably had to put me on a bigger Queen or an overpair and lay down his hand.

- His turn bet was terrible, and -EV, because the only way I should be calling this bet is with a better Queen, Q-8 or pocket 8's. If I have a pair like TT or JJ I'm folding, and if I have KK or AA I probably also have to fold. He got called by the ONLY HAND that could both consider calling and that he had beat.

- My turn call was atrocious, because I needed to ask myself, "What Can I Beat?" It's hard to imagine that he would call a raise pre-flop with a worse Queen, and since an 8 was on the board I'm beaten by Q-8 as well. The only way I'm ahead is if he had flat-called a raise pre-flop with KK or AA, and that also seems unlikely.

Later that night, on the same table, a similar situation occurred. A LAG player who had been entering a lot of pots for raises and had shown down some Ace-rags raised UTG to $1.50, I made a somewhat loose call on the button with KJ offsuit, and the big blind also called. The flop came Jh 5d 3h, UTG bet out $2, I called, and the blind folded. The turn was a 10d, and UTG bet $5 this time, leaving himself just over $10 behind. I thought for a few seconds, decided that this player was either bluffing or on a heart draw, and pushed all-in. He called (after much consideration), the river was an offsuit 5, and I won the pot when he showed down QsJs and my King kicker played. In this case it was my opponent who needed to think "What Can I Beat?" He was behind a set, any overpair, AJ, KJ, and J-10, and he didn't have a flush redraw. However, unlike the previous example, in which there were no straight or flush draws present, in this case there were two flush draws and a straight draw on the board, making it possible that I was semi-bluffing with a big draw. His mistake was to bet the turn after I had called his flop bet, because I was not strong enough to bet the turn strongly myself, and then he could have value-bet the river and limited his losses when I called. Unfortunately, I didn't win as much on this hand as I had lost on the previous hand...but a win is a win...

Plugging Those Leaks

The month of April is going to end up being a profitable one, although not as much as it could have been thanks to the ever-present "leaks" in my game. I seem to find myself winning a whole lot of small-to-medium pots every time I play but somehow I manage to lose one big pot along the way that really cuts into the profitability of my session. For example, last night I brought it in UTG for a 4x the BB raise with QQ. It passed around to the button, who reraised me another 4BB. One of the blinds (on a very short stack) called the raise and I did as well. The flop came A-K-Q, and I checked to the re-popper, who bet 8BB, which was called by the short stack. As soon as the shorty called I put him on Ace-X, and figured that the repopper couldn't have Aces, so I called as well. The turn was a blank, and I checked again to the repopper, who bet 20BB. Now at this point the shorty was already all-in, so if I folded I was going to get to see the repopper's hand, but of course I couldn't find a fold with my trips and called him. The river was another blank, and I check-called the repopper's river bet, only to find out that he did indeed have Aces in the hole. In retrospect, I had a pretty easy fold on the turn, because after I called the flop bet the repopper had to give me credit for a very strong hand, and since he continued betting despite this I should have known that I was up against KK or AA and let the hand go. What it comes down to is that I get a bit too stubborn with my very good hands, and once or twice a session make a negative-expectation play despite all the evidence in front of me that I am either beat or going to get called by what must be a better hand.

The other leak that's been occurring has been on my steal-reraise hands. About every 20-30 hands I will reraise a few limpers with raggy Aces or other similarly trashy hands. About half the time I get no callers and win a few blinds, but the other half of the time I get called and find myself in troublesome spots where I am betting big with a mediocre hand and praying that my opponent will fold, but instead I'm getting called or even reraised. The result is that the pots I win are small, and the pots I lose are much larger.

So my goal for May is to recognize and eliminate those -EV plays, and also limit my steal-reraise attempts to hands that actually have some value to fall back upon. Vamos a ver !

The April Turnaround

The month of March pretty much sucked. Thank goodness it only comes once a year. I blew most of my bankroll in March, so at the start of April I had to do something I'd hoped I wouldn't have to do : rebuy. So far, it's looking like a good decision.

Since I had run so bad in March I decided to move down one level in cash games, and started playing 10c/25c NLHE full ring games, buying in for about 20 bucks/table and playing two tables. The results have been good for the most part, and I have been very pleased with my play. I have also paid a few visits to the Hi-Lo Stud tables and done well there too. Sit-n-go's, which used to be my bread and butter, have been my bane lately, although I did win one after being down to 550 chips with 4 players left, keeping my ROI respectable. However, I've discovered that my generally tight play seems to be much better suited to cash games than tourneys and sit-n-go's, so I've been focusing on them, and with good results.

The Foxwoods Poker Classic

I went down to Foxwoods last Thursday for the Foxwoods Poker Classic, specifically to play in Friday's event, which was NLHE with an $1100+100 buy-in. I had never played in a large live tournament before, nor one with anywhere close to this big a buy-in, so I approached the day with all sorts of emotions tumbling through my head, although, surprisingly enough, nervousness was not one of them. The tourney started at 10am with 545 players, which meant that only 50 would make the money. We started with 5,000 chips, and the blinds began at 25 + 50, with each level lasting 50 minutes, so there was plenty of time to be patient and wait for a good hand before getting involved in a pot. In fact, I was amazed at the general tightness of pretty much all the players, not only at the early levels, but throughout the whole event. There was not a lot of tricky play going on and minimal bluffing as far as I could tell. Also, I had expected a dearth of chit-chat but that was also not the case, as most of the players seemed like they were there to have a good time and hopefully win some dough.
As for the play, well, I don't think I've ever been so card-dead in my entire life. In the first level I think I played one pot post-flop, and that was from the button, and I folded to a check-raise on the flop (and the raiser showed me top pair). Pretty much every time I had a speculative hand (one that I would raise with entering an unopened pot but not call a raise with, like AJ off or KQ or a small pair) someone would come in for a raise in front of me and I'd have to let it go. Eventually my table was broken up, and when I got moved I finally got to see a few flops and win a couple of pots. I called a standard raise in the big blind with KhQh, bet a Q-high flop on every street, and was called all the way down by the raiser with JJ. I got to see a free flop with A7o in the big blind and check-raised the button on a A-7-3 rainbow flop, causing him to fold. At the first break I had about 5700 chips, which I was happy with considering how few pots I had been involved in. Shortly thereafter I got moved to another table, and through the 3rd and 4th levels I really didn't make much headway, ending with about 5000 chips. I pretty much stayed at that level for quite some time, and then finally doubled up to about 11,000 late in the 5th level. Right out of the next break I got AA UTG, raised, and everyone folded. Then later in that level, I had become short stacked, and doubled up when I pushed KK behind a raise and beat AK when I turned the case King (good thing too, as of course an Ace came on the river). However, the card-deadness continued, and soon after the dinner break, right after a hand when I had pushed Q-10 off with my extremely short stack and amazingly tripled up, I pushed all-in over the top of an UTG raise with AQ off and was knocked out when his QQ held. Overall, I was content with my play, given both the lack of cards I got and the extreme tightness of my opponents. I finished about 83rd out of 545, which I was extremely pleased with considering the fact that it was my first major tournament.

Not so pleasing was what happened to my wife the following day in the $530+70 shootout. Early on, she had check-raised a very loose-aggressive player all-in when she held KQ on a AKQ flop, and he pondered what to do for about 5 minutes before finally mucking his hand. Soon after that she got to see a free flop with 23o in the blinds, and bet the pot when the flop came K-3-2, getting one caller. The turn was a 4, and she bet again and was called again. The river was the ultimate scare card, an ace, and she smartly checked to the caller who bet a measly 200 chips, and she called to find out he had Ace-5 and had turned a wheel after having called a pot-sized bet in a tiny pot with only a gutshot on the flop. A few hands later, she limped in UTG for 50 chips with QQ, got a couple of callers, and then the same loose-aggressive player she had tangled with earlier reraised, making it 600 to go. Since Mel only had about 1800 chips in front of her, and she knew the other player (who thought she was bluffing on the previous all-in) was probably raising with Ace-rag or total trash, she pushed all-in, and after the other player announced "I want to see what you have this time", he called her with his Ace-6 suited, said "oooh, good hand", and then of course flopped an Ace to knock her out. The worst part about the hand was that her opponent then started laughing after the Ace flopped, an utterly classless reaction from an utterly terrible player, and an unfortunate early end to the tourney for my wife.

Later in the day my wife's parents came up to the Woods and we were able to enjoy dinner with them and spend some time playing slots and chatting. It was a fun, but expensive, weekend for sure.

Finally, Some Redemption

The last couple of weeks have seen my both my bankroll and my confidence take a hit. I've been playing well for the most part, but I've made a few bad (read : loose) calls and suffered a disproportionate amount of coolers. Since my wife is out of town this weekend, I thought it would be a good night to play a couple of tournaments and hopefully get some of that confidence back. I played two tourneys tonight, a $10+1 and a $1+.10, both of which started at 7pm on PokerStars. In the $10 tourney I was able to double up pretty early with 77 vs. AQ on a Q-7-2 flop, but then lost a couple of races and got knocked out when a guy called my pre-flop all-in with A9 and flopped an ace to beat my 10 10.
The $1 tourney was a different story, and it was one of those rare tourneys where the suckouts were few and far between - if you got your chips in good your hand tended to actually hold up, which doesn't always seem to happen. I was able to grab some chips early, and for the first couple of hours maintained an average stack. Before I began play, I had made a promise to myself : it's a small buy-in, so bluff as infrequently as possible, and only play top hands behind raises, because people tend to play looser in these smaller events. So I found myself folding 99 behind a raise and a call, and AQ in the SB to a raise from a player that had about as many chips as I did, and managed to save those chips for better hands and better situations.
During the second hour I was able to build a pretty good stack and because of this was able to open up my game a bit and gain a lot of positional equity. One of the stategies that worked extremely well for me in this tourney was my ability make small, odd-size raises and take down a lot of pots pre-flop. I call them "change raises", where I'll raise enough to even out my stack, but it will be smaller than a standard raise. For example, if I have 5674 chips and the blinds are 100-200, I'd raise to 474 rather than the min-raise of 400 or the standard raise of 600-800. With 11084 chips and 200-400 blinds I might raise 1084. To me, they're a great way to mix up my play. I get the same fold equity as I would with a standard raise, while giving my oppponents absolutely no information about the strength of my hand and putting fewer chips at risk.
In the third hour, I really didn't get many good hands, and by the end of the hour I saw my stack slipping back to average-size. Then the key hand of the tourney came up. I change-raised from the button with a measly 10c4c and got called by both blinds, which was not exactly the result I was looking for. However, I was pleasantly surprised when the flop came 9c5c2c. It was checked to me, and I bet about half the pot with my made flush. The small blind immediately went all-in, and I called to find that he had flopped trip deuces. Thankfully my flush held, and just a few hands later I was able to double up again with TT vs. JhTh. This put me in the top 20 or so with about 80 players left. By this time the blinds were getting high, making post-flop play exceedingly rare, and I roller-coastered up and down a few times, winning with 99 vs. A 10 suited when he flopped two to his flush and missed his 15 outs, losing with 66 to AK, and beating AQ with JJ. I eventually crawled my way into the top 10, thanks to a well-thought-out monster bluff from the small blind that was followed immediately by a win with pocket Jacks on the button.
When the 4th hour began, there were about 23 players left from the 1800+ that had started and I was about 13th in chips. Unfortunately, I didn't get a hand for the first two orbits, and then fell victim to a suckout knockout when I went all-in behind a raise with AKo, got called by the raiser with As8s, and watched him turn a flush after a King-high flop. I finished 16th and won a whopping $8 and change, but more importantly, and amazingly, made NO mistakes in the whole tourney. Every time I got my money in the middle, I was at worst in a coin-flip situation, and more often than not I was a favorite. And I don't think I got caught bluffing one time ! It may not be a big win monitarily but confidence-wise it's a much-needed boost !