Last night I played some 25c/50c NLHE on Pokerstars and experienced two hands where a "deeper think" about "What Can I Beat?"would have led to difficult, but correct, laydowns. In the first hand, the table I was at had just lost a couple of players, so I raised to $1.50 in MP with Qs9s, and it folded around to the BB, who called after a few seconds of thought. The flop came Q-8-2 rainbow, and after it was checked to me I bet $2. My opponent check-raised me to $4, whereupon I reraised him to $6 and was called. The turn was another Queen, giving me trips, and my opponent bet $25 (which would put me all-in if I called) into the $15 pot. I thought for a few seconds, and called, only to find out that my opponent had Q-10 offsuit, and he scooped the pot. In retrospect, this was a poorly-played hand:
- My hand value was not strong enough to enter the pot with.
- His hand value was too weak to call a raise with in a heads-up pot out of position.
- The flop was played OK by both players - I bet a good hand, he raised to see where he stood, and I reraised to redefine the strength of my hand. However, if I had reraised more strongly, say to $10, I think my opponent would have probably had to put me on a bigger Queen or an overpair and lay down his hand.
- His turn bet was terrible, and -EV, because the only way I should be calling this bet is with a better Queen, Q-8 or pocket 8's. If I have a pair like TT or JJ I'm folding, and if I have KK or AA I probably also have to fold. He got called by the ONLY HAND that could both consider calling and that he had beat.
- My turn call was atrocious, because I needed to ask myself, "What Can I Beat?" It's hard to imagine that he would call a raise pre-flop with a worse Queen, and since an 8 was on the board I'm beaten by Q-8 as well. The only way I'm ahead is if he had flat-called a raise pre-flop with KK or AA, and that also seems unlikely.
Later that night, on the same table, a similar situation occurred. A LAG player who had been entering a lot of pots for raises and had shown down some Ace-rags raised UTG to $1.50, I made a somewhat loose call on the button with KJ offsuit, and the big blind also called. The flop came Jh 5d 3h, UTG bet out $2, I called, and the blind folded. The turn was a 10d, and UTG bet $5 this time, leaving himself just over $10 behind. I thought for a few seconds, decided that this player was either bluffing or on a heart draw, and pushed all-in. He called (after much consideration), the river was an offsuit 5, and I won the pot when he showed down QsJs and my King kicker played. In this case it was my opponent who needed to think "What Can I Beat?" He was behind a set, any overpair, AJ, KJ, and J-10, and he didn't have a flush redraw. However, unlike the previous example, in which there were no straight or flush draws present, in this case there were two flush draws and a straight draw on the board, making it possible that I was semi-bluffing with a big draw. His mistake was to bet the turn after I had called his flop bet, because I was not strong enough to bet the turn strongly myself, and then he could have value-bet the river and limited his losses when I called. Unfortunately, I didn't win as much on this hand as I had lost on the previous hand...but a win is a win...
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