Friday Night Fenway - Look For These Signs

I Actually Feel Bad For This Guy...But Not Too Bad

I've been playing quite a bit of hi-lo Stud lately, especially in the last week since Pokerstars is doing a "double-FPP" promotion. I was multi-tabling at the time of this hand, and didn't get to see what my opponent had until I looked at the Hand History about 10 minutes later. He played the hand about as well as he possibly could and had to figure I was betting a low hand.

PokerStars - 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit ($1/$2) with 10 cent ante - 2007/05/14
Seat 1: GeoffreyM ($28.50 in chips)
Seat 2: djelove1 ($42.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Mr. B41 ($41.55 in chips)
Seat 5: LordPye ($8.45 in chips)
Seat 6: atlas_afs ($41.25 in chips)
Seat 7: plato65 ($113.20 in chips)
Seat 8: pouchouchou ($49 in chips)
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to GeoffreyM [6c]
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac] (cha chinggggg)
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s]
Dealt to LordPye [6d]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s]
Dealt to plato65 [Jd]
Dealt to pouchouchou [6s]

GeoffreyM: brings in for $0.50
djelove1: raises $0.50 to $1 (I'm in early position and the table has been loose)
Mr. B41: calls $1
LordPye: folds
atlas_afs: calls $1
plato65: calls $1
pouchouchou: folds
GeoffreyM: calls $0.50
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to GeoffreyM [6c] [Th]
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac] [8h]
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s] [Ks]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s] [Jc]
Dealt to plato65 [Jd] [2h]

djelove1: bets $1
Mr. B41: calls $1
atlas_afs: raises $1 to $2
plato65: folds
GeoffreyM: folds
djelove1: raises $1 to $3
Mr. B41: calls $2
atlas_afs: calls $1
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac 8h] [3s]
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s Ks] [Qd]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s Jc] [7h]

djelove1: bets $2
Mr. B41: calls $2
atlas_afs: raises $2 to $4
djelove1: raises $2 to $6
Mr. B41: calls $4
atlas_afs: calls $2
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s] [As] (QUADS ! ! ! )
Dealt to Mr. B41 [8s Ks Qd] [Qh]
Dealt to atlas_afs [9s Jc 7h] [3d]
djelove1: bets $2
Mr. B41: calls $2
atlas_afs: calls $2 (obv the ace forced him to slow down)
*** RIVER ***
Dealt to djelove1 [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s As] [5d]
djelove1: bets $2
Mr. B41: folds
atlas_afs: calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
djelove1: shows [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s As 5d] (HI: four of a kind, Aces)
atlas_afs: mucks hand
djelove1 collected $41.70 from pot
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $42.70 Rake $1
Seat 1: GeoffreyM folded on the 4th Street
Seat 2: djelove1 showed [Ad Ah Ac 8h 3s As 5d] and won ($41.70) with HI: four of a kind, Aces
Seat 3: Mr. B41 folded on the River
Seat 5: LordPye folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 6: atlas_afs mucked [9d 9c 9s Jc 7h 3d 2d] (dude was rolled-up too ! ! ! )
Seat 7: plato65 folded on the 4th Street
Seat 8: pouchouchou folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)

"What Can I Beat?" - Two Great Examples

Last night I played some 25c/50c NLHE on Pokerstars and experienced two hands where a "deeper think" about "What Can I Beat?"would have led to difficult, but correct, laydowns. In the first hand, the table I was at had just lost a couple of players, so I raised to $1.50 in MP with Qs9s, and it folded around to the BB, who called after a few seconds of thought. The flop came Q-8-2 rainbow, and after it was checked to me I bet $2. My opponent check-raised me to $4, whereupon I reraised him to $6 and was called. The turn was another Queen, giving me trips, and my opponent bet $25 (which would put me all-in if I called) into the $15 pot. I thought for a few seconds, and called, only to find out that my opponent had Q-10 offsuit, and he scooped the pot. In retrospect, this was a poorly-played hand:

- My hand value was not strong enough to enter the pot with.

- His hand value was too weak to call a raise with in a heads-up pot out of position.

- The flop was played OK by both players - I bet a good hand, he raised to see where he stood, and I reraised to redefine the strength of my hand. However, if I had reraised more strongly, say to $10, I think my opponent would have probably had to put me on a bigger Queen or an overpair and lay down his hand.

- His turn bet was terrible, and -EV, because the only way I should be calling this bet is with a better Queen, Q-8 or pocket 8's. If I have a pair like TT or JJ I'm folding, and if I have KK or AA I probably also have to fold. He got called by the ONLY HAND that could both consider calling and that he had beat.

- My turn call was atrocious, because I needed to ask myself, "What Can I Beat?" It's hard to imagine that he would call a raise pre-flop with a worse Queen, and since an 8 was on the board I'm beaten by Q-8 as well. The only way I'm ahead is if he had flat-called a raise pre-flop with KK or AA, and that also seems unlikely.

Later that night, on the same table, a similar situation occurred. A LAG player who had been entering a lot of pots for raises and had shown down some Ace-rags raised UTG to $1.50, I made a somewhat loose call on the button with KJ offsuit, and the big blind also called. The flop came Jh 5d 3h, UTG bet out $2, I called, and the blind folded. The turn was a 10d, and UTG bet $5 this time, leaving himself just over $10 behind. I thought for a few seconds, decided that this player was either bluffing or on a heart draw, and pushed all-in. He called (after much consideration), the river was an offsuit 5, and I won the pot when he showed down QsJs and my King kicker played. In this case it was my opponent who needed to think "What Can I Beat?" He was behind a set, any overpair, AJ, KJ, and J-10, and he didn't have a flush redraw. However, unlike the previous example, in which there were no straight or flush draws present, in this case there were two flush draws and a straight draw on the board, making it possible that I was semi-bluffing with a big draw. His mistake was to bet the turn after I had called his flop bet, because I was not strong enough to bet the turn strongly myself, and then he could have value-bet the river and limited his losses when I called. Unfortunately, I didn't win as much on this hand as I had lost on the previous hand...but a win is a win...